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Glossary H
Glossary H
The financial world is full of jargon -
i.e. strange words no-one understands. Here we
try to explain some of the many technical terms.
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Hedging
Attempting to minimise, or lay-off risk.
Hedge Fund
An offshore investment fund; a more appropriate
name for these vehicles would probably be
Leverage Funds - but then no one would go
anywhere near them, so 'hedge fund' it is then.
There are a large variety of these, specializing
in very secret techniques, their characteristic
claim being that they can make money even on a
generally falling market. To do this they have to
be able to short-sell stocks, which makes them
very unpopular with certain sections of the
investment community; although they serve as a
convenient scapegoat their overall effect on the
markets is only very small.
Once only for the very rich, but becoming more
accessible to the general public; so, should you
invest in one? Difficult to say - you are still
giving your money to fund managers to gamble with
on your behalf, the only difference being that
they can now bet on the market dropping as well
rising. The question is then can the fund
managers spot losers (- to short-sell) any better
than they can spot winners? The jury is still
out on that one ...
If you do take the plunge be warned that
administration charges are likely to be very high
indeed, even by the standards of conventional
funds, likely including a percentage of the
profits; just what techniques they are using, is
likely to be a closely guarded secret - you will
never know what they are actually up to, and
while you may think they are a team of PhDs with
a bank of supercomputers, it could in fact be
something like Elliott Wave, astrology, tarot
cards, or ouija boards they are using. I'm not
joking!
Hedge funds are in the news currently because the
market is in a slump, and no one is buying
conventional funds; hedge funds are seen by the
fund managers as a way to get people back into
the market, hence the general pressure for the
FSA to approve them for general public
consumption - 'consultations' are currently being
undertaken. Watch out for the inevitable to
appear 'Basket-of-Hedge-Funds' ISA. The very fact
that what were seen as irredeemably risk vehicles
3 years ago are now on the verge of being
approved for the hoi polloi shows how desperate
the industry must be.
Herd Behaviour
See dealing rooms. See emotional cycle.
Birds flocking together. Lemmings jumping over a
cliff. Sardines gathering in vast shoals prior to
being swallowed by a passing whale.
In general, "just doing what everyone else is
doing", may seem harmless and safe, but it is
often the precursor to disaster; jumping on to
bandwagons just as they are about to crash is not
a good idea.
Alas, the lessons of history show
conclusively that ... no one ever learns the
lessons of history.
Horse
Racing, and other common forms of Gambling
An unusual topic for a Financial
Glossary!
Elsewhere, we have made the point that there is
no real difference between
gambling and active
trading (- some people get very hot
under the collar when you make the comparison),
and that the investor should really start to
think more like an active trader. There is also
the point that in difficult market conditions,
the best kinds of trades - i.e. the ones where
you actually stand some chance of making money -
are derivatives and bets (- spread bets that is),
but this section is more directed towards the
conventional gambler and why he should consider
using the financial markets as an alternative to
conventional betting on sporting events.
Let us consider the various common types of
gambling -
-
Horse Racing - is just ...
bent; not only is it bent, it has
never been straight - it is as crooked
as hell. Jockeys are often told where to finish
by their owners who are trying to manipulate
the odds; the only time you get a clean race is
when all the runners are simultaneously on the
fiddle - then no one knows who will win. Even
the advent of new technology in setting odds -
similar to that used in financial markets, I
might add - is probably leading to even more
abuses.
-
Casinos - the House always has
the odds in its favour; Blackjack is the only
game where the punter has a reasonable chance.
You can only get the odds in your favour if you
learn to count cards (- and what's wrong with
that, since it turns a game of chance into one
of skill?) but they will bar you for this. If
you don't count cards but simply win too much,
they will bar you as well! No one is supposed
to win in casinos except the House, therefore
if someone is winning, then they must
be doing something illegal. Casinos are
friendly places as long as you are content to
lose.
-
Popular Sports - e.g.
Football; apart from a handful of cases, there
is no real reason to believe that footballers
throw games, so it is probably pretty straight,
at least at the top level - if you are playing
in, say, the European Cup Final, then there is
no way any footballer would throw it for money
- no amount would be worth it; when there are
big prizes at stake, everyone is trying. But
with popular sports, the bookmakers will be on
top of things concerning the quoting of odds;
with unpopular sports, it could be that your
knowledge is superior to the bookie, but these
contests are even more likely to be
compromised. In general, anywhere where there
is weak regulation and massive gambling
interest, is a good place to avoid, especially
so if organized crime is lurking.
Bookmakers - who fulfill the function of both
broker and market maker where gambling is
concerned often do not give very good odds, i.e.
their spreads are very large. Sometimes they just
won't pay out. Often accuse legitimate gamblers
of being involved in 'betting scams' simply
because they win too often. Always moaning about
how much money they are losing.
With betting on the financial markets, while
market manipulation,
insider trading, etc, is still
possible, it is much harder to do due to the
amounts of money involved (- e.g. a stable lad
with a syringe can't do it! ); fiddling the FTSE
or the DOW is very, very hard! Brokerage is very
competitive, and it is all done electronically -
you should be able to get small spreads on
whatever it is you want to trade (- as long as
you are not buying stock), and you are not trying
to trade something e.g. on the AIM/OFEX, where
liquidity can be a problem.
House of Cards
A fragile structure, prone to collapse when put
under the slightest pressure. An apparently
respectable financial structure may, in fact, be
a house of cards.
Human Behaviour
Whatever happens, people need to eat food, drink
water and have a place to live. Once they have
these, they will go looking for sex or some form
of intoxication or other diversion. Disputes
arising from the pursuit of these basic drives
will lead to various forms of violence, hence the
need for weapons, armed thugs (- policemen,
soldiers, nerve gas, nukes, aircraft carriers
...), the apparatus of social control (- mass
media, politics, religion or other belief
systems, prisons, schools, pharmaceuticals ...),
and bureaucrats to administer it all (-
officials, commissars, lawyers, judges,
councillors, priests, mullahs, rabbis, Whitehall
mandarins ...) At the top of this pyramidal
hierarchy will lie a self-serving elite who
either claim -
- their actions are in the 'national interest'
rather than any self-interest
- their actions have little or no effect or
influence on society as a whole, or
- they do not actually exist as a
coherent body.
Note that this template fits all societies
of whatever description; given that this has not
changed for several millenia, it is likely to
stay true in the future - so if you want to buy
some stocks for the long term, then this is what
you should be thinking about - stay away from
novelty.
Hypothesis
A mathematical term; in practice it means either
something that is obviously true, but cannot
easily be proved, or more seriously, an
outrageous guess or simplification, most often
assumed in order to allow the formulation of a
neat solution, to some problem which is in no way
neat.
'Probably not true in practice' - would be an
accurate description. An even more severe variant
is the 'working hypothesis' - this is something
which even its proposer accepts to be bullshit.
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